As the 2026 NFL season approaches, fantasy football enthusiasts are closely monitoring player projections to make informed draft decisions. ESPN's Mike Clay, a seasoned analyst in the field, has identified twelve players he anticipates will experience a decrease in touchdown production this season. **1. Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals)** After leading the NFL with 17 touchdown receptions last season, Ja'Marr Chase is expected to see a regression in his touchdown numbers. While he remains a top-tier receiver, replicating such a high touchdown count is challenging. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/45679576/2025-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-less-touchdowns-td?utm_source=openai)) **2. Raheem Mostert (Miami Dolphins)** Raheem Mostert's impressive 21-touchdown performance last season is unlikely to be repeated. Clay projects a significant decline in Mostert's touchdown production for 2026. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/45679576/2025-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-less-touchdowns-td?utm_source=openai)) **3. Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)** Entering his age-30 season after handling 450 touches in 2025, Christian McCaffrey is projected to experience a step back in 2026. Despite his elite skill set, the heavy workload raises concerns about his ability to sustain high touchdown numbers. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/48348941/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-rb-profiles?utm_source=openai)) **4. Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)** Jalen Hurts, who scored 15 touchdowns last season, is projected to see a slight decrease in his touchdown production for 2026. While he remains a dual-threat quarterback, replicating such a high touchdown count is challenging. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/45679576/2025-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-less-touchdowns-td?utm_source=openai)) **5. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)** Josh Allen's 15-touchdown performance last season is expected to regress in 2026. Clay anticipates a slight decline in Allen's touchdown numbers, though he remains a valuable fantasy asset. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/45679576/2025-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-less-touchdowns-td?utm_source=openai)) **6. CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys)** CeeDee Lamb's 14-touchdown season is projected to decrease in 2026. Clay forecasts a significant drop in Lamb's touchdown production, making him a riskier pick for fantasy managers. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/45679576/2025-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-less-touchdowns-td?utm_source=openai)) **7. Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams)** Kyren Williams, who scored 15 touchdowns last season, is projected to see a slight increase in his touchdown numbers for 2026. Clay anticipates a modest uptick, making Williams a potential value pick. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/45679576/2025-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-less-touchdowns-td?utm_source=openai)) **8. De'Von Achane (Miami Dolphins)** De'Von Achane's 11-touchdown performance is expected to see a slight increase in 2026. Clay projects a modest uptick in Achane's touchdown production, suggesting continued growth. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/45679576/2025-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-less-touchdowns-td?utm_source=openai)) **9. Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings)** Jordan Addison's 10-touchdown season is projected to remain stable in 2026. Clay anticipates Addison will maintain his touchdown production, making him a consistent fantasy option. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/45679576/2025-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-less-touchdowns-td?utm_source=openai)) **10. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)** Travis Kelce is a crucial piece of the Kansas City Chiefs offense. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/45621090/2025-fantasy-football-rankings-projections-more-touchdowns-td?utm_source=openai)) **11. Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams)** Puka Nacua is a rising star in the Los Angeles Rams' offense. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/47513496/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-ppr-mike-clay?utm_source=openai)) **12. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks)** Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a promising talent in the Seattle Seahawks' receiving corps. ([espn.com](https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/47513496/2026-fantasy-football-rankings-ppr-mike-clay?utm_source=openai)) These projections highlight the inherent volatility in fantasy football, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning and adaptability. While these forecasts provide valuable insights, fantasy managers should consider a range of factors, including player health, team dynamics, and offseason changes, when making their draft decisions.